CHAIN #1272 · abb4e601dc98PREREG 3dd9f2ee7c25resolved only against official statistical APIs

We know when we cannot predict.

Certiora is a selective forecasting instrument. Every question is pre-registered, every forecast passes a verdict gate, every outcome is resolved against official statistical releases and appended to a public hash chain. When the evidence is not enough, the probability stays sealed: the abstention is part of the record.

CalibrationBrier 0.324 gated · 0.250 shadow (no gate)N=4 resolved · backtestabstain 40% of forecastsupdated 00:58 UTCsmall sample (N=4) · gate-vs-shadow gap not yet meaningfulmethod →
Verdict gate · replaylatest real forecast per question · UTC
248 real forecasts queued · replay starts when visible
Track record · prediction vs outcome104 scored · sealed forecasts never counted
resolved YESresolved NOwell-calibrated drift →050100predicted P(yes)fomc-2026-03 · predicted 70% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDuscpi-2026-04 · predicted 60% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDtufe-2026-05 · predicted 35% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDtr-yabanci-dibs-2026-07-10 · predicted 76% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDus-fed-bilanco-2026-07-15 · predicted 69% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDtr-kredi-2026-07-10 · predicted 24% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDtr-rezerv-altin-2026-07-10 · predicted 77% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDtr-rezerv-doviz-2026-07-10 · predicted 33% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDtr-yabanci-hisse-2026-07-10 · predicted 59% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDtr-mevduat-faizi-2026-07-10 · predicted 56% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDtr-ticari-faiz-2026-07-10 · predicted 58% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDtr-mevduat-faizi-2026-07-17 · predicted 45% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDicsa-2026-07-11-dusus · predicted 90% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDus-fed-bilanco-2026-07-22 · predicted 25% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDtr-rezerv-altin-2026-07-17 · predicted 95% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDtr-rezerv-doviz-2026-07-17 · predicted 50% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDtr-kredi-2026-07-17 · predicted 7% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDus-ccsa-2026-07-11 · predicted 90% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDtr-ticari-faiz-2026-07-17 · predicted 59% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDus-benzin-2026-07-27 · predicted 45% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDtr-yabanci-dibs-2026-07-24 · predicted 45% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDus-fed-bilanco-2026-07-29 · predicted 77% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDus-ccsa-2026-07-18 · predicted 95% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDtr-mevduat-faizi-2026-07-24 · predicted 51% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDtr-kredi-2026-07-24 · predicted 90% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDtr-rezerv-altin-2026-07-24 · predicted 9% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDus-konut-2026-06-dusus · predicted 75% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDus-cekirdek-cpi-2026-06-dusus · predicted 94% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDus-gaz-depo-2026-07-31 · predicted 63% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDppk-2026-07-indirim · predicted 18% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDus-ham-stok-2026-07-31 · predicted 47% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDus-benzin-stok-2026-07-31 · predicted 75% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDecb-2026-07-degisiklik · predicted 4% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDtr-ihracat-2026-06-dusus · predicted 95% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDtr-pka-beklenti-2026-07-dusus · predicted 81% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDtr-rkge-2026-07-dusus · predicted 54% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDus-michigan-2026-06-dusus · predicted 88% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDtr-kko-2026-07-dusus · predicted 45% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDtr-rezerv-altin-2026-07-31 · predicted 93% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDtr-mevduat-faizi-2026-07-31 · predicted 56% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDicsa-2026-07-25-dusus · predicted 71% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDtr-kredi-2026-07-31 · predicted 16% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDus-ham-stok-2026-08-07 · predicted 36% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDhenry-hub-2026-08-07 · predicted 48% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDtr-ticari-faiz-2026-07-31 · predicted 60% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDus-benzin-2026-08-10 · predicted 65% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDus-ccsa-2026-08-01 · predicted 32% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDtr-rezerv-altin-2026-08-07 · predicted 10% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDtr-mevduat-faizi-2026-08-07 · predicted 57% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDicsa-2026-08-01-dusus · predicted 49% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDhenry-hub-2026-08-14 · predicted 75% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDus-benzin-2026-08-17 · predicted 55% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDicsa-2026-08-08-dusus · predicted 54% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDtr-yabanci-hisse-2026-08-14 · predicted 72% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDus-ccsa-2026-08-08 · predicted 86% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDtr-rezerv-doviz-2026-08-14 · predicted 74% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDtr-yabanci-dibs-2026-08-14 · predicted 10% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDwti-spot-2026-08-21 · predicted 49% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDhenry-hub-2026-08-21 · predicted 67% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDbrent-spot-2026-08-21 · predicted 36% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDus-benzin-stok-2026-08-21 · predicted 48% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDtr-yabanci-dibs-2026-08-21 · predicted 42% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDtr-rezerv-altin-2026-08-21 · predicted 69% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDicsa-2026-08-15-dusus · predicted 52% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDtr-yabanci-hisse-2026-08-21 · predicted 78% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDhenry-hub-2026-08-28 · predicted 66% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDus-ham-stok-2026-08-28 · predicted 6% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDtr-ticari-faiz-2026-08-21 · predicted 66% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDus-benzin-stok-2026-08-28 · predicted 86% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDus-gaz-depo-2026-08-28 · predicted 33% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDus-cekirdek-cpi-2026-07-dusus · predicted 95% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDtr-ihracat-2026-07-dusus · predicted 68% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDtr-yabanci-hisse-2026-08-28 · predicted 87% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDtr-ticari-faiz-2026-08-28 · predicted 46% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDus-gaz-depo-2026-09-04 · predicted 45% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDwti-spot-2026-09-04 · predicted 65% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDus-fed-bilanco-2026-09-09 · predicted 21% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDtr-yabanci-dibs-2026-09-04 · predicted 25% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDus-ccsa-2026-08-29 · predicted 35% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDtr-kredi-2026-09-04 · predicted 56% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDtr-rezerv-altin-2026-09-04 · predicted 72% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDhenry-hub-2026-09-11 · predicted 66% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDwti-spot-2026-09-11 · predicted 67% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDtr-ticari-faiz-2026-09-04 · predicted 74% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDus-gaz-depo-2026-09-11 · predicted 39% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDus-benzin-stok-2026-09-11 · predicted 61% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDtr-rezerv-doviz-2026-09-11 · predicted 64% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDus-fed-bilanco-2026-09-16 · predicted 41% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDhenry-hub-2026-09-18 · predicted 64% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDus-benzin-stok-2026-09-18 · predicted 48% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDtr-ticari-faiz-2026-09-11 · predicted 76% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDus-benzin-2026-09-21 · predicted 76% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDus-ccsa-2026-09-12 · predicted 96% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDtr-kredi-2026-09-18 · predicted 28% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDus-fed-bilanco-2026-09-23 · predicted 38% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDtr-yabanci-hisse-2026-09-18 · predicted 85% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDtr-ticari-faiz-2026-09-18 · predicted 43% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDbrent-spot-2026-09-25 · predicted 63% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDus-konut-2026-08-dusus · predicted 84% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDus-perakende-2026-08-dusus · predicted 83% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDtr-kfe-2026-07-dusus · predicted 61% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDtr-rkge-2026-09-dusus · predicted 44% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINEDus-cpi-2026-08-dusus · predicted 46% · resolved NO · CONSTRAINEDicsa-2026-09-19-dusus · predicted 57% · resolved YES · CONSTRAINED
binned reliability curveunlocks at 30 · 104/30

104 published forecasts scored so far, 48 resolved YES. Too few to bin into a reliability curve; each is shown as one point. Sealed forecasts are never scored for accuracy.

Abstained
40%
408 of 1023 forecasts sealed by the gate
Live questions
68
open or forecasted
Resolved
209
205 live · 4 backtest

Verdict distribution

all 1023 live forecasts to date · questions are re-forecast as evidence arrives
DECIDE 0CONSTRAINED 467CAUTION 148ABSTAIN 408a young knowledge base abstains often; that is the design, not a bug

Live board

resolution windows through 2026-12-31

Backtests

pipeline acceptance runs on already-published data; never mixed with live scores

The record is public. Every forecast, published or sealed, is chained before the outcome exists. Verify it yourself →