We know when we cannot predict.

Certiora is a selective forecasting instrument. Every question is pre-registered, every forecast passes a verdict gate, every outcome is resolved against official statistical releases and appended to a public hash chain. When the evidence is not enough, the probability stays sealed: the abstention is part of the record.

How the gate works Verify the chain →

CalibrationBrier 0.324 gated · 0.250 shadow (no gate)N=4 resolved · backtestabstain 49% of forecastsupdated 12:31 UTCsmall sample (N=4) · gate-vs-shadow gap not yet meaningfulmethod →

Verdict gate · replaylatest real forecast per question · UTC

89 real forecasts queued · replay starts when visible

Track record · prediction vs outcome25 scored · sealed forecasts never counted

binned reliability curveunlocks at 30 · 25/30

25 published forecasts scored so far, 14 resolved YES. Too few to bin into a reliability curve; each is shown as one point. Sealed forecasts are never scored for accuracy.

Abstained

49%

145 of 294 forecasts sealed by the gate

Live questions

open or forecasted

Resolved

28 live · 4 backtest

Verdict distribution

all 294 live forecasts to date · questions are re-forecast as evidence arrives

DECIDE 0CONSTRAINED 149CAUTION 0ABSTAIN 145a young knowledge base abstains often; that is the design, not a bug

Live board

resolution windows through the end of 2026

Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Jul 10, 2026?
CONSTRAINED76.2%YES
TR macro07-04 → 07-16
0d
Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Jul 10, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED55.5%YES
TR macro07-04 → 07-16
0d
Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Jul 10, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED24.1%NO
TR macro07-04 → 07-16
0d
Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Jul 10, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED33.1%YES
TR macro07-04 → 07-16
0d
Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Jul 15, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED68.8%NO
global macro07-08 → 07-16
0d
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Jul 10, 2026?
CONSTRAINED59.1%YES
TR macro07-04 → 07-16
0d
Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Jul 10, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED77.2%NO
TR macro07-04 → 07-16
0d
Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Jul 10, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED57.8%YES
TR macro07-04 → 07-17
0d
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Jul 11, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED89.9%YES
global macro07-16 → 07-23
0d
Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Jul 17, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED95.0%YES
TR macro07-11 → 07-23
0d
Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Jul 11, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED90.2%YES
global macro07-05 → 07-23
0d
Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Jul 17, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED50.0%YES
TR macro07-11 → 07-23
0d
Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Jul 17, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED6.6%YES
TR macro07-11 → 07-23
0d
Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Jul 17, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED45.0%YES
TR macro07-11 → 07-23
0d
Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Jul 22, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED25.1%NO
global macro07-15 → 07-23
0d
Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Jul 17, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED58.8%NO
TR macro07-11 → 07-24
0d
Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Jul 27, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED45.3%NO
enerji07-20 → 07-27
0d
Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Jul 29, 2026 come in below the prior week?resolves next
CONSTRAINED54.6%resolves 07-30
global macro07-22 → 07-30
0d
Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Jul 24, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED55.5%resolves 07-30
TR macro07-18 → 07-30
0d
Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Jul 24, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED95.0%resolves 07-30
TR macro07-18 → 07-30
0d
Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Jul 24, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED89.8%resolves 07-30
TR macro07-18 → 07-30
0d
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Jul 24, 2026?
CONSTRAINED35.0%resolves 07-30
TR macro07-18 → 07-30
0d
Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Jul 18, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED81.7%resolves 07-30
global macro07-12 → 07-30
0d
Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Jul 24, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED96.2%resolves 07-30
TR macro07-18 → 07-30
0d
Will the ECB change its deposit facility rate at its July 2026 meeting?
CONSTRAINED8.2%resolves 07-31
global macro07-01 → 07-31
1d
Will the CBRT MPC cut the policy rate (1-week repo) at its July 2026 meeting?
CONSTRAINED17.5%resolves 07-31
TR macro07-08 → 07-31
1d
Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?
CONSTRAINED54.0%YES
TR macro07-01 → 07-31
1d
Will US Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading?
CONSTRAINED88.4%resolves 07-31
global macro07-01 → 07-31
1d
Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading?
CONSTRAINED74.5%NO
global macro07-01 → 07-31
1d
Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?
CONSTRAINED44.5%YES
TR macro07-01 → 07-31
1d
Will US annual core CPI inflation for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading?
CONSTRAINED93.9%YES
global macro07-01 → 07-31
1d
Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?
CONSTRAINED81.3%NO
TR macro07-01 → 07-31
1d
Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading?
CONSTRAINED99.0%resolves 07-31
TR macro07-01 → 07-31
1d
Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED46.6%resolves 07-31
enerji07-24 → 07-31
1d
Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED46.5%resolves 07-31
enerji07-24 → 07-31
1d
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Jul 25, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED70.6%resolves 08-06
global macro07-30 → 08-06
7d
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 1, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED65.1%resolves 08-13
global macro08-06 → 08-13
14d
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 8, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED66.1%resolves 08-20
global macro08-13 → 08-20
21d
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 15, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED65.1%resolves 08-27
global macro08-20 → 08-27
28d
Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?
CONSTRAINED47.5%resolves 08-31
TR macro08-01 → 08-31
32d
Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?
CONSTRAINED92.0%resolves 08-31
TR macro08-01 → 08-31
32d
Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?
CONSTRAINED5.4%resolves 08-31
TR macro08-01 → 08-31
32d
Will Turkey's July 2026 annual CPI (first print) come in below the June 2026 first print?
CONSTRAINED36.7%resolves 08-31
TR macro08-01 → 08-31
32d
Will US annual nonfarm payrolls growth for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?
CONSTRAINED84.8%resolves 08-31
global macro08-01 → 08-31
32d
Will US annual core CPI inflation for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?
CONSTRAINED62.9%resolves 08-31
global macro08-01 → 08-31
32d
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 29, 2026 come in below the prior week?
CONSTRAINED57.0%resolves 09-10
global macro09-03 → 09-10
42d
Will the CBRT MPC cut the policy rate at its September 2026 meeting?
CONSTRAINED64.5%resolves 09-30
TR macro09-01 → 09-30
62d
Will the ECB change the deposit facility rate at its September 2026 monetary policy meeting?
CONSTRAINED92.0%resolves 09-30
global macro09-01 → 09-30
62d
Will Turkey's August 2026 annual CPI (first print) come in below the July 2026 first print?
CONSTRAINED54.0%resolves 09-30
TR macro09-01 → 09-30
62d
Will the FOMC change the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?
CONSTRAINED65.0%resolves 09-30
global macro09-01 → 09-30
62d
Will US August 2026 annual CPI-U (first print) come in below the July 2026 first print?
CONSTRAINED40.0%resolves 09-30
global macro09-01 → 09-30
62d
Will the ECB change its deposit facility rate at the October 2026 meeting?
CONSTRAINED87.1%resolves 10-31
global macro10-01 → 10-31
93d
Will the FOMC change the federal funds target range at its October 2026 meeting?
CONSTRAINED37.0%resolves 10-31
global macro10-01 → 10-31
93d
Will US September 2026 annual CPI come in below August 2026 annual CPI?
CONSTRAINED47.3%resolves 10-31
global macro10-01 → 10-31
93d
Will the CBRT cut its policy rate at the October 2026 MPC meeting?
CONSTRAINED47.6%resolves 10-31
TR macro10-01 → 10-31
93d
Will the CBRT policy rate on 30 Oct 2026 be below its 7 July 2026 level?
CONSTRAINED38.5%resolves 11-06
TR macro10-30 → 11-06
99d
Will US October 2026 annual CPI come in below September 2026 annual CPI?
CONSTRAINED46.0%resolves 11-30
global macro11-01 → 11-30
123d
Will the FOMC change the target range at its first meeting in the Oct-Nov 2026 window?
CONSTRAINED65.0%resolves 11-30
global macro10-01 → 11-30
123d
Will the ECB change its deposit facility rate at the December 2026 meeting?
CONSTRAINED89.2%resolves 12-31
global macro12-01 → 12-31
154d
Will the CBRT cut its policy rate at the December 2026 MPC meeting?
CONSTRAINED64.9%resolves 12-31
TR macro12-01 → 12-31
154d
Will the FOMC change the federal funds target range at its December 2026 meeting?
CONSTRAINED70.7%resolves 12-31
global macro12-01 → 12-31
154d
Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Jul 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINYES
global macro06-28 → 07-16
0d
Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Jul 20, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINNO
enerji07-13 → 07-20
0d
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Jul 17, 2026?
ABSTAINYES
TR macro07-11 → 07-23
0d
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Jul 17, 2026?
ABSTAINYES
TR macro07-11 → 07-23
0d
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Jul 18, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINYES
global macro07-23 → 07-30
0d
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Jul 24, 2026?
ABSTAINresolves 07-30
TR macro07-18 → 07-30
0d
Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINresolves 07-31
enerji07-24 → 07-31
1d
Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Jul 24, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINresolves 07-31
TR macro07-18 → 07-31
1d
Will US annual retail sales growth for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading?
ABSTAINYES
global macro07-01 → 07-31
1d
Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINresolves 07-31
enerji07-24 → 07-31
1d
Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINresolves 07-31
enerji07-24 → 07-31
1d
Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINresolves 07-31
enerji07-24 → 07-31
1d
Will Türkiye's daily average day-ahead market clearing price (MCP) on Jul 31, 2026 come in below the same day one week earlier (Jul 24, 2026)?
ABSTAINresolves 07-31
enerji07-24 → 07-31
1d
Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Aug 03, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINresolves 08-03
enerji07-27 → 08-03
4d
Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?
ABSTAINresolves 08-31
TR macro08-01 → 08-31
32d
Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?
ABSTAINresolves 08-31
global macro08-01 → 08-31
32d
Will US July 2026 annual CPI-U (first print) come in below the June 2026 first print?
ABSTAINresolves 08-31
global macro08-01 → 08-31
32d
Will US Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?
ABSTAINresolves 08-31
global macro08-01 → 08-31
32d
Will US annual retail sales growth for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?
ABSTAINresolves 08-31
global macro08-01 → 08-31
32d
Will Turkey annual house price growth (RPPI) for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading?
ABSTAINresolves 08-31
TR macro08-01 → 08-31
32d
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 22, 2026 come in below the prior week?
ABSTAINresolves 09-03
global macro08-27 → 09-03
35d
Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price at the end of Q3 2026 come in below its level at the start of the quarter?
ABSTAINresolves 09-30
enerji07-01 → 09-30
62d
Will Turkey's September 2026 annual CPI come in below August 2026 annual CPI?
ABSTAINresolves 10-31
TR macro10-01 → 10-31
93d
Will Türkiye's annual CPI inflation for September 2026 come in below the June 2026 reading?
ABSTAINresolves 10-31
TR macro10-01 → 10-31
93d
Will US annual core CPI inflation (CPILFESL) for September 2026 come in below the June 2026 reading?
ABSTAINresolves 10-31
global macro10-01 → 10-31
93d
Will Turkey's October 2026 annual CPI come in below September 2026 annual CPI?
ABSTAINresolves 11-30
TR macro11-01 → 11-30
123d
Will Turkey's November 2026 annual CPI come in below October 2026 annual CPI?
ABSTAINresolves 12-31
TR macro12-01 → 12-31
154d
Will US November 2026 annual CPI come in below October 2026 annual CPI?
ABSTAINresolves 12-31
global macro12-01 → 12-31
154d

Question	Domain	Window	Verdict	P(yes)	Outcome
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Jul 10, 2026?	TR macro	07-04 → 07-160d	CONSTRAINED	76.2%	YESrecord →
Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Jul 10, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-04 → 07-160d	CONSTRAINED	55.5%	YESrecord →
Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Jul 10, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-04 → 07-160d	CONSTRAINED	24.1%	NOrecord →
Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Jul 10, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-04 → 07-160d	CONSTRAINED	33.1%	YESrecord →
Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Jul 15, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	07-08 → 07-160d	CONSTRAINED	68.8%	NOrecord →
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Jul 10, 2026?	TR macro	07-04 → 07-160d	CONSTRAINED	59.1%	YESrecord →
Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Jul 10, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-04 → 07-160d	CONSTRAINED	77.2%	NOrecord →
Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Jul 10, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-04 → 07-170d	CONSTRAINED	57.8%	YESrecord →
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Jul 11, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	07-16 → 07-230d	CONSTRAINED	89.9%	YESrecord →
Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Jul 17, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-11 → 07-230d	CONSTRAINED	95.0%	YESrecord →
Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Jul 11, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	07-05 → 07-230d	CONSTRAINED	90.2%	YESrecord →
Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Jul 17, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-11 → 07-230d	CONSTRAINED	50.0%	YESrecord →
Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Jul 17, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-11 → 07-230d	CONSTRAINED	6.6%	YESrecord →
Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Jul 17, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-11 → 07-230d	CONSTRAINED	45.0%	YESrecord →
Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Jul 22, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	07-15 → 07-230d	CONSTRAINED	25.1%	NOrecord →
Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Jul 17, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-11 → 07-240d	CONSTRAINED	58.8%	NOrecord →
Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Jul 27, 2026 come in below the prior week?	enerji	07-20 → 07-270d	CONSTRAINED	45.3%	NOrecord →
Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Jul 29, 2026 come in below the prior week?resolves next	global macro	07-22 → 07-300d	CONSTRAINED	54.6%	resolves 07-30record →
Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Jul 24, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-18 → 07-300d	CONSTRAINED	55.5%	resolves 07-30record →
Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Jul 24, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-18 → 07-300d	CONSTRAINED	95.0%	resolves 07-30record →
Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Jul 24, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-18 → 07-300d	CONSTRAINED	89.8%	resolves 07-30record →
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Jul 24, 2026?	TR macro	07-18 → 07-300d	CONSTRAINED	35.0%	resolves 07-30record →
Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Jul 18, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	07-12 → 07-300d	CONSTRAINED	81.7%	resolves 07-30record →
Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Jul 24, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-18 → 07-300d	CONSTRAINED	96.2%	resolves 07-30record →
Will the ECB change its deposit facility rate at its July 2026 meeting?	global macro	07-01 → 07-311d	CONSTRAINED	8.2%	resolves 07-31record →
Will the CBRT MPC cut the policy rate (1-week repo) at its July 2026 meeting?	TR macro	07-08 → 07-311d	CONSTRAINED	17.5%	resolves 07-31record →
Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?	TR macro	07-01 → 07-311d	CONSTRAINED	54.0%	YESrecord →
Will US Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading?	global macro	07-01 → 07-311d	CONSTRAINED	88.4%	resolves 07-31record →
Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading?	global macro	07-01 → 07-311d	CONSTRAINED	74.5%	NOrecord →
Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?	TR macro	07-01 → 07-311d	CONSTRAINED	44.5%	YESrecord →
Will US annual core CPI inflation for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading?	global macro	07-01 → 07-311d	CONSTRAINED	93.9%	YESrecord →
Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?	TR macro	07-01 → 07-311d	CONSTRAINED	81.3%	NOrecord →
Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading?	TR macro	07-01 → 07-311d	CONSTRAINED	99.0%	resolves 07-31record →
Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?	enerji	07-24 → 07-311d	CONSTRAINED	46.6%	resolves 07-31record →
Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?	enerji	07-24 → 07-311d	CONSTRAINED	46.5%	resolves 07-31record →
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Jul 25, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	07-30 → 08-067d	CONSTRAINED	70.6%	resolves 08-06record →
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 1, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	08-06 → 08-1314d	CONSTRAINED	65.1%	resolves 08-13record →
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 8, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	08-13 → 08-2021d	CONSTRAINED	66.1%	resolves 08-20record →
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 15, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	08-20 → 08-2728d	CONSTRAINED	65.1%	resolves 08-27record →
Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?	TR macro	08-01 → 08-3132d	CONSTRAINED	47.5%	resolves 08-31record →
Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?	TR macro	08-01 → 08-3132d	CONSTRAINED	92.0%	resolves 08-31record →
Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?	TR macro	08-01 → 08-3132d	CONSTRAINED	5.4%	resolves 08-31record →
Will Turkey's July 2026 annual CPI (first print) come in below the June 2026 first print?	TR macro	08-01 → 08-3132d	CONSTRAINED	36.7%	resolves 08-31record →
Will US annual nonfarm payrolls growth for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?	global macro	08-01 → 08-3132d	CONSTRAINED	84.8%	resolves 08-31record →
Will US annual core CPI inflation for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?	global macro	08-01 → 08-3132d	CONSTRAINED	62.9%	resolves 08-31record →
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 29, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	09-03 → 09-1042d	CONSTRAINED	57.0%	resolves 09-10record →
Will the CBRT MPC cut the policy rate at its September 2026 meeting?	TR macro	09-01 → 09-3062d	CONSTRAINED	64.5%	resolves 09-30record →
Will the ECB change the deposit facility rate at its September 2026 monetary policy meeting?	global macro	09-01 → 09-3062d	CONSTRAINED	92.0%	resolves 09-30record →
Will Turkey's August 2026 annual CPI (first print) come in below the July 2026 first print?	TR macro	09-01 → 09-3062d	CONSTRAINED	54.0%	resolves 09-30record →
Will the FOMC change the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?	global macro	09-01 → 09-3062d	CONSTRAINED	65.0%	resolves 09-30record →
Will US August 2026 annual CPI-U (first print) come in below the July 2026 first print?	global macro	09-01 → 09-3062d	CONSTRAINED	40.0%	resolves 09-30record →
Will the ECB change its deposit facility rate at the October 2026 meeting?	global macro	10-01 → 10-3193d	CONSTRAINED	87.1%	resolves 10-31record →
Will the FOMC change the federal funds target range at its October 2026 meeting?	global macro	10-01 → 10-3193d	CONSTRAINED	37.0%	resolves 10-31record →
Will US September 2026 annual CPI come in below August 2026 annual CPI?	global macro	10-01 → 10-3193d	CONSTRAINED	47.3%	resolves 10-31record →
Will the CBRT cut its policy rate at the October 2026 MPC meeting?	TR macro	10-01 → 10-3193d	CONSTRAINED	47.6%	resolves 10-31record →
Will the CBRT policy rate on 30 Oct 2026 be below its 7 July 2026 level?	TR macro	10-30 → 11-0699d	CONSTRAINED	38.5%	resolves 11-06record →
Will US October 2026 annual CPI come in below September 2026 annual CPI?	global macro	11-01 → 11-30123d	CONSTRAINED	46.0%	resolves 11-30record →
Will the FOMC change the target range at its first meeting in the Oct-Nov 2026 window?	global macro	10-01 → 11-30123d	CONSTRAINED	65.0%	resolves 11-30record →
Will the ECB change its deposit facility rate at the December 2026 meeting?	global macro	12-01 → 12-31154d	CONSTRAINED	89.2%	resolves 12-31record →
Will the CBRT cut its policy rate at the December 2026 MPC meeting?	TR macro	12-01 → 12-31154d	CONSTRAINED	64.9%	resolves 12-31record →
Will the FOMC change the federal funds target range at its December 2026 meeting?	global macro	12-01 → 12-31154d	CONSTRAINED	70.7%	resolves 12-31record →
Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Jul 04, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	06-28 → 07-160d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Jul 20, 2026 come in below the prior week?	enerji	07-13 → 07-200d	ABSTAIN		NOrecord →
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Jul 17, 2026?	TR macro	07-11 → 07-230d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Jul 17, 2026?	TR macro	07-11 → 07-230d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Jul 18, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	07-23 → 07-300d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Jul 24, 2026?	TR macro	07-18 → 07-300d	ABSTAIN		resolves 07-30record →
Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?	enerji	07-24 → 07-311d	ABSTAIN		resolves 07-31record →
Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Jul 24, 2026 come in below the prior week?	TR macro	07-18 → 07-311d	ABSTAIN		resolves 07-31record →
Will US annual retail sales growth for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading?	global macro	07-01 → 07-311d	ABSTAIN		YESrecord →
Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?	enerji	07-24 → 07-311d	ABSTAIN		resolves 07-31record →
Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?	enerji	07-24 → 07-311d	ABSTAIN		resolves 07-31record →
Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Jul 31, 2026 come in below the prior week?	enerji	07-24 → 07-311d	ABSTAIN		resolves 07-31record →
Will Türkiye's daily average day-ahead market clearing price (MCP) on Jul 31, 2026 come in below the same day one week earlier (Jul 24, 2026)?	enerji	07-24 → 07-311d	ABSTAIN		resolves 07-31record →
Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Aug 03, 2026 come in below the prior week?	enerji	07-27 → 08-034d	ABSTAIN		resolves 08-03record →
Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?	TR macro	08-01 → 08-3132d	ABSTAIN		resolves 08-31record →
Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?	global macro	08-01 → 08-3132d	ABSTAIN		resolves 08-31record →
Will US July 2026 annual CPI-U (first print) come in below the June 2026 first print?	global macro	08-01 → 08-3132d	ABSTAIN		resolves 08-31record →
Will US Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?	global macro	08-01 → 08-3132d	ABSTAIN		resolves 08-31record →
Will US annual retail sales growth for 2026-07 come in below the 2026-06 reading?	global macro	08-01 → 08-3132d	ABSTAIN		resolves 08-31record →
Will Turkey annual house price growth (RPPI) for 2026-06 come in below the 2026-05 reading?	TR macro	08-01 → 08-3132d	ABSTAIN		resolves 08-31record →
Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 22, 2026 come in below the prior week?	global macro	08-27 → 09-0335d	ABSTAIN		resolves 09-03record →
Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price at the end of Q3 2026 come in below its level at the start of the quarter?	enerji	07-01 → 09-3062d	ABSTAIN		resolves 09-30record →
Will Turkey's September 2026 annual CPI come in below August 2026 annual CPI?	TR macro	10-01 → 10-3193d	ABSTAIN		resolves 10-31record →
Will Türkiye's annual CPI inflation for September 2026 come in below the June 2026 reading?	TR macro	10-01 → 10-3193d	ABSTAIN		resolves 10-31record →
Will US annual core CPI inflation (CPILFESL) for September 2026 come in below the June 2026 reading?	global macro	10-01 → 10-3193d	ABSTAIN		resolves 10-31record →
Will Turkey's October 2026 annual CPI come in below September 2026 annual CPI?	TR macro	11-01 → 11-30123d	ABSTAIN		resolves 11-30record →
Will Turkey's November 2026 annual CPI come in below October 2026 annual CPI?	TR macro	12-01 → 12-31154d	ABSTAIN		resolves 12-31record →
Will US November 2026 annual CPI come in below October 2026 annual CPI?	global macro	12-01 → 12-31154d	ABSTAIN		resolves 12-31record →

Backtests

pipeline acceptance runs on already-published data; never mixed with live scores

backtestNO

Did the US FOMC change the upper target in the March 2026 window?

forecast 70.0% · CONSTRAINED

backtestNO

Did US April 2026 annual CPI come in below March 2026?

forecast 60.0% · CONSTRAINED

backtestNO

Did Turkey's May 2026 annual CPI come in below the April 2026 annual CPI?

forecast 35.0% · CONSTRAINED

backtestYES

Did Turkey's June 2026 annual CPI come in below May 2026 annual CPI?

forecast sealed · ABSTAIN · scored via shadow only

The record is public. Every forecast, published or sealed, is chained before the outcome exists. Verify it yourself →