Pre-registered questions, verdict-gated forecasts, official-API resolutions, one public hash chain. Nothing here is investment advice.
Resolved this week
- Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Sep 11, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 75.6% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.0595
- Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Sep 18, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
- Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Sep 18, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN). Brier 0.1756
- Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Sep 18, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 63.9% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.4083
- Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading? -> YES. Forecast: 44.1% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.3125
- Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.0266
- Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Sep 21, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 75.7% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.5730
- Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Sep 18, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.2043
- Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Sep 18, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 48.2% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.2683
- Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Sep 18, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN). Brier 0.0671
- Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Sep 12, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 95.7% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.8949
- Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Sep 18, 2026? -> NO. Forecast: 85.0% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.7225
- Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Sep 18, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.7276
- Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Sep 18, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.0031
- Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Sep 18, 2026? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.5417
- Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Sep 18, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.0392
- Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Sep 18, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 28.5% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.0812
- Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Sep 23, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 37.8% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.1429
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Sep 19, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 56.8% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.1866
Forecasts placed or updated
- Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 42.4% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 45.5% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Sep 18, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 42.9% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Sep 28, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 13.8% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will the ECB change the deposit facility rate at its September 2026 monetary policy meeting?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Sep 26, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will Turkey annual house price growth (RPPI) for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: 41.9% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US annual retail sales growth for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: 65.6% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will US annual nonfarm payrolls growth for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: 73.6% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: 64.2% (CONSTRAINED)
- Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
- Will euro area annual HICP inflation for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: SEALED (CAUTION)
- Will Turkey's November 2026 annual CPI come in below October 2026 annual CPI?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
Withheld by the gate
- Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Sep 25, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will the ECB change the deposit facility rate at its September 2026 monetary policy meeting?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Sep 26, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will euro area annual HICP inflation for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
- Will Turkey's November 2026 annual CPI come in below October 2026 annual CPI?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
Chain
Head: block #1241 · 40a69b4b90b6f3c3 Verify anytime: https://certiora.app/verify Calibration, updated live: https://certiora.app/calibration The audit layer: https://certiora.app/integrity \n