Certiora Weekly Record · week ending Sep 18, 2026

Pre-registered questions, verdict-gated forecasts, official-API resolutions, one public hash chain. Nothing here is investment advice.

Resolved this week

• Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 71.6% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.0807
• Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Sep 11, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 67.0% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.4489
• Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Sep 11, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.2480
• Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Sep 04, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 74.2% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.5506
• Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Sep 05, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.1722
• Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Sep 11, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 66.3% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.1136
• Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN). Brier 0.8208
• Will Turkey's August 2026 annual CPI (first print) come in below the July 2026 first print? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.1414
• Will US August 2026 annual CPI-U (first print) come in below the July 2026 first print? -> NO. Forecast: 46.0% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.2116
• Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Sep 14, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).
• Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Sep 11, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 60.7% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.3684
• Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Sep 11, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.0250
• Will US annual retail sales growth for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading? -> NO. Forecast: 83.1% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.6906
• Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Sep 11, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 38.8% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.1505
• Will US continued jobless claims for the week ending Sep 05, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN). Brier 0.0037
• Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish government bonds (outright) in the week ending Sep 11, 2026? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.1592
• Will non-residents be net buyers of Turkish equities in the week ending Sep 11, 2026? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.4160
• Will CBRT gold reserves for the week ending Sep 11, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.0676
• Will the flow-weighted TRY deposit rate for the week ending Sep 11, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.0071
• Will CBRT gross FX reserves for the week ending Sep 11, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: 63.7% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.1318
• Will total banking sector credit stock for the week ending Sep 11, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.0021
• Will the Fed's total assets (H.4.1) as of Sep 16, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> NO. Forecast: 41.1% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.1689
• Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Sep 12, 2026 come in below the prior week? -> YES. Forecast: SEALED (CAUTION). Brier 0.2470
• Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading? -> YES. Forecast: 83.8% (CONSTRAINED). Brier 0.0262
• Will euro area annual HICP inflation for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading? -> NO. Forecast: SEALED (ABSTAIN).

Forecasts placed or updated

• Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Sep 18, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
• Will the flow-weighted TRY commercial loan rate for the week ending Sep 11, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 62.9% (CONSTRAINED)
• Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Sep 18, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
• Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Sep 18, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (CAUTION)
• Will US total gasoline stocks for the week ending Sep 18, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 48.2% (CONSTRAINED)
• Will the Henry Hub natural gas spot price for the week ending Sep 18, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 63.9% (CONSTRAINED)
• Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Sep 18, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
• Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Sep 21, 2026 come in below the prior week?: SEALED (CAUTION)
• Will Turkey seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: SEALED (CAUTION)
• Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
• Will US initial jobless claims for the week ending Sep 19, 2026 come in below the prior week?: 55.4% (CONSTRAINED)
• Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: SEALED (CAUTION)
• Will euro area annual HICP inflation for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: SEALED (CAUTION)
• Will Turkey annual house price growth (RPPI) for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: 46.0% (CONSTRAINED)
• Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
• Will US Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: 93.2% (CONSTRAINED)
• Will Turkey seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)
• Will US annual retail sales growth for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: 74.1% (CONSTRAINED)
• Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: SEALED (CAUTION)
• Will US annual nonfarm payrolls growth for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: 79.6% (CONSTRAINED)
• Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: SEALED (CAUTION)
• Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: SEALED (CAUTION)
• Will the ECB change its deposit facility rate at the December 2026 meeting?: SEALED (CAUTION)
• Will US November 2026 annual CPI come in below October 2026 annual CPI?: SEALED (ABSTAIN)

Withheld by the gate

• Will the WTI crude oil spot price for the week ending Sep 18, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will US Lower-48 working natural gas in storage for the week ending Sep 18, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending Sep 18, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will the Brent crude oil spot price for the week ending Sep 18, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will the US average regular gasoline price for the week of Sep 21, 2026 come in below the prior week?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will Turkey seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-08 come in below the 2026-07 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will Market participants 12-month-ahead inflation expectation for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will euro area annual HICP inflation for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will Turkey manufacturing capacity utilization for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will Turkey seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will US housing starts (SAAR) for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will Turkey annual export growth for 2026-09 come in below the 2026-08 reading?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will Turkey real sector confidence index for 2026-10 come in below the 2026-09 reading?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will the ECB change its deposit facility rate at the December 2026 meeting?: verdict CAUTION; probability withheld by the gate.
• Will US November 2026 annual CPI come in below October 2026 annual CPI?: verdict ABSTAIN; probability withheld by the gate.

Chain

Head: block #1158 · 473f64aad1340cfa Verify anytime: https://certiora.app/verify Calibration, updated live: https://certiora.app/calibration The audit layer: https://certiora.app/integrity \n